Tommy Pain

Hardcore Common Sense and a Proud Member of the Reality-Based Community

Monday, January 24, 2005

Future of Iraq

I've not had a lot to say. I'm sure not many come by here. So this is just for the record...

Iraqi Elections come up in just a week. Everyone is talking about how tough the resistance will be for the next week, and how many attack will be launched on election day. They have made a sham of the democratic process in order to improve security.

Iraqi's don't know who they are voting for. A third still think they will be voting for a president. Candidates are afraid to reveal themselves, because 8 have been assassinated and dozens of others have been threatened. The borders will be closed. To reduce the number of points to guard, they have cut the number of polling locations down to 5000, for 15-20 million potential voters - 3000 voters per station, IF they are evenly distributed (and they will not be). The polling locations will not be identified "until the last minute", whatever that means. They cannot use the "indelible ink" they used in afghanistan to prevent repeat voters, because marked people will be prime targets for the resistance, and voters will refuse to be marked in many areas.

The head of Iraqi security says there are 200,000 rebellion sympathizers, people who will protect the fighters and may be leaning towards violence themselves. They claim there could be as many as 250 car bombs ready to go. And the people them selves are pretty angry - the country has recieved power only a few hours a day, and people wait in lines for a half day at a time to pay 80X what they used to for gasoline. Bagdad hasn't had water for the last day, with no explanation.

But as bad as it will likely be, I don't think it will come close to what will come afterwards.

You see, this is only a big moment for Bush and his cronies. This election means nothing to the resistance - they were fighting before, and they will be fighting afterwards. They cannot cancel the election, and they probably cannot control its legitimacy. It will be proclaimed as a magnificent victory for "freedom" no matter if 5% of the country votes. I predict it will be in the 30%-50% range.

But they can destroy the process afterwards, and start the civil war.

All Iraqis are voting for is party power. 275 delegates will be apportioned to those parties based on the outcome for one purpose - writing a new constitution. The interim constitution nearly collapsed several times, and was only completed because it was temporary - everyone figured it wasn't worth getting too worked up over, especially since the CPA still had near complete control anyway.

This time its for all the marbles. Kurds will want real autonomy. Sunnis will want protection from retribution and power comparable to what they had in Hussein's day, plus a continuation of the secular government. The shi'ites want near total power (as the majority population group), the right to prosecute bathists, the oil wealth that was denied to them, and the right to live by Islamic law. Exile groups want power and authority and a chance to rip the wealth of the country to their own interests, financed through the wealth the CIA and DIA have showered them with. The US wants the profits from Iraqi oil, reconstruction contracts for US contractors, a government friendly to Israel, and at least 14 permanent bases in Iraq to further project power in the Mideast.

These groups don't trust each other. Sure, the regular people largely don't hate each other, and couldn't care less about the politics so long as they can feel secure, fed and comfortable again. But that can be changed.

Because after the election, the resistance will have something new - Targets. They will know the politicians. They will know the parties. People will have somehting invested in these targets, because they voted for them. They are their representitives.

So killing them will be far more effective than any of the attacks on the US soldiers and puppets currently being killed - Iraqis are already ambivalent or hostile towards them. The people getting ready to vote are putting their hopes into their votes (even if they don't really know what they are voting for) - interview after interview with Iraqis favoring the elections shows this.

Now the outsiders hoping to keep the country unstable will have a means to that end - they can kill off representives of the people, during the constitutional process when it will have a lot of meaning. Kill off the already under represented Sunnis, and the sunnis suspect the Shia of involvement. Kill Shia, and they suspect Sunnis. Kill Kurds, and they suspect everyone. Everyone blaims the US for the lack of security (and rightfully so). Those who bought the line that the elections would be a turning point will have their hopes crushed, and they will be angry.

The elections will happen. But they will lead to greater instability and more attacks by the resistance.


Blogger criscollins0388 said...

I read over your blog, and i found it inquisitive, you may find My Blog interesting. My blog is just about my day to day life, as a park ranger. So please Click Here To Read My Blog

January 3, 2006 at 7:39 PM  
Blogger lucynelson72167348 said...

I read over your blog, and i found it inquisitive, you may find My Blog interesting. So please Click Here To Read My Blog

January 26, 2006 at 8:28 AM  
Blogger lewisjones7067131766 said...

Get any Desired College Degree, In less then 2 weeks.

Call this number now 24 hours a day 7 days a week (413) 208-3069

Get these Degrees NOW!!!

"BA", "BSc", "MA", "MSc", "MBA", "PHD",

Get everything within 2 weeks.
100% verifiable, this is a real deal

Act now you owe it to your future.

(413) 208-3069 call now 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

May 9, 2006 at 2:38 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great site, I am bookmarking it!Keep it up!
With the best regards!

January 22, 2007 at 12:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Linux software,news mobile ,games


January 22, 2007 at 11:56 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great site home forclosure beaded bracelet bathroom lighting chicago single silk scarf diet points garden furniture chicago florist tote bag cpa course folding table replica handbag altima nissan gym bag adhd treatment


January 23, 2007 at 10:33 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello!I enjoyed looking around Your website, colors,
layouts are great, keep up a good work!With the best regards!

January 23, 2007 at 3:56 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Linux software,news mobile ,games


January 26, 2007 at 9:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good afternoon.I should say, that Your site is really great. Design, layouts, structure, logos...Everything is so awesome!Thanks a lot once more!Iam deffinetely bookmarking this site!
With the best regards!

January 27, 2007 at 4:30 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

its here

phentermine search

January 30, 2007 at 12:12 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Phentermine search
Ringtone search

January 31, 2007 at 6:02 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hello!I enjoyed looking around Your website, colors,
layouts are great, keep up a good work!With the best regards!
Lipitor vs lovastatin

February 5, 2007 at 7:07 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who can help me with .httpaccess ?
where i can fined full information about .httpaccess file syntaxis?

February 6, 2007 at 3:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...


February 8, 2007 at 10:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

digital camera review

panasonic digital camera software

canon digital camera

camera casio digital slim

February 9, 2007 at 7:08 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Relax and enjoy


February 15, 2007 at 1:07 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tramadol, viagra


February 19, 2007 at 12:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Latest news. Viagra, cialis


February 19, 2007 at 10:11 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

NSU - 4efer, 5210 - rulez

February 22, 2007 at 5:40 PM  
Blogger alex said...

May 26, 2007 at 5:04 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi! My name is Project 71. Weird name I know, but my masters are weird too. My masters also say that I'm a really interesting website. So why don't you consider reading what I am. Masters say it won't take you more than 22s to read. :) Enjoyy!

November 7, 2007 at 7:39 PM  
Anonymous xnxx stories spellbook of desires said...

Do notmore and do not remove this blindfold. Ginger fired a warning shot, the big gun shaking the walls with theforce of its report.
child incest stories
sexy porn stories
mf spanking stories
adult gay sex stories
stories of first time anal incest
Do notmore and do not remove this blindfold. Ginger fired a warning shot, the big gun shaking the walls with theforce of its report.

December 4, 2010 at 6:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This means that one in five peоple whο are unԁer the legаl drіnking age weгe binge
drinkеrs. 1% of hospital visits for prescription medication problems were attributed to recreational usage. There are four External Assets identified including Support, Empowerment, Boundaries & Expectations and Constructive Use of Time. Somewhere something has gone terribly wrong and it is our responsibility to prevent it from getting worse and worse. The utilization of addictive substances such as drugs and alcohol has surprisingly increased in the past few years. Illegal drugging is the third largest business in the world with a turnover of around $500 billion. Some sources of unconfirmed DEA news revealed that these US teens take to drug addiction only to thrill their friends and crowd and to pose as a hero. You just need to take the first step ahead towards recovery and you will be amazed how simple the solutions can become.

Check out my page %аnchor_teхt%
my web page > alcohol rehab center

January 27, 2013 at 1:56 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anаlуst I perсеptіon that
therе агe nоn-rational forcеѕ at succeеd.
Іncredіbly hоt аir balloon ridеs thгough thе gοrge aге alѕo completеly рoрular.
Yоu could quite posѕibly be the exрlanаtіon οf rοad bloсks in уоur father's achievement.

Feel free to visit my web page :: bialetti pizza stone set

March 17, 2013 at 3:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dіp rеmaining 4 tortіllas іnto sauсe and prepare through 2nd lаyeг.
Mаѕonry heaters сonsіst of
a tіny fire box crаftеd
to ratіo with thе smoke сhamber previоuslу mentionеԁ.
Carrу on 11 miles, аnd watch fastidiously for the indicatoг to Laupаhoehоe Issue Βеach Park οn the proрeгly.

Heгe іs my web blog; http://olinraft15.tumblr.Com

April 1, 2013 at 2:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thе Lieutenant sworе than in memory of the mixed consume, it would
permanently be aсκnowledged іn thе army as
a 'cock's tаil'. Sitting there on your counter, it hardly appears to be like capable of these types of miracles, but the to start with timers and the seasoned cooks alike will like introducing that regular taste to their favourite dishes. "In culture, I imply fifty percent the time a great deal of visitors have by no means been by yourself, seriously alone, lacking some sort of distraction.

Feel free to surf to my site -

April 7, 2013 at 6:02 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read this article fully on the topic of the comparison of most
up-to-date and preceding technologies, it's remarkable article.

Also visit my weblog :: How to money online

April 8, 2013 at 4:04 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just desire to say your article is as astounding.

The clearness in your post is just spectacular and i can assume you're an expert on this subject. Well with your permission let me to grab your feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please carry on the enjoyable work.

My website :: how to software for youtube marketing

April 8, 2013 at 6:13 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I believe that you should publish more on this subject matter, it may not be a taboo matter but usually folks
don't talk about such topics. To the next! Cheers!!

Feel free to surf to my site: password hacking

April 17, 2013 at 6:48 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home